Hope never felt fainter and despair greater, than after the shocking events in Gaza of the last few days. The turf war that has simmered for the last few months has reached its defining moment. No longer simple tit-for-tat battles between rival militias - Fatah and Hamas. The latter is now hell-bent on gaining complete control in Gaza. What this total authority will entail is difficult to imagine but extremely concerning. Hamas militants have stated that Islamic rule will follow - although not in the Taliban misogynistic mold. Gaza - traditionally a Hamas stronghold - has the potential to become a small Islamist enclave void of moderate leadership, combining the Taliban's brutality with Iran's anti Israel rhetoric.
Let's for arguments sake stay optimistic about future possibilities here, since the pessimistic outcome is too bad to bear. But in brief, Hamas could use Gaza dominance as a platform for an assault against Israel, with an onslaught on nearby cities with newly acquired Katusha rockets plus a resumption of suicide attacks. A fierce response from Israel would be inevitable. Even more chronic desperation and hardship would follow for those Gazans that have no interest in Hamas militant rule. The impact on the region could be severe.
The optimistic view exists but it is based on a large assumption - that once the internal Gaza violence abates, Hamas does not launch such a reckless campaign against Israel. If Hamas' political leadership can re-establish their control - Ismael Haniya has been noticeably absent in the last few days - then clear divisions within Palestinian politics will appear. The moderate Fatah ruled West Bank against the uncompromising Hamas controlled Gaza. Part of Israel's and the international community's difficulty since Hamas' election victory in 2006 has lied in dealing with a Palestinian Authority that includes both rival factions. After this division, negotiation with an empowered Fatah has greater scope. Despite Mahmoud Abbas dire current position, he would be dominant in the West Bank, having lost Gaza. Israel and the West Bank will be two states working together, waiting for Gaza to catch up. There will be two "peace processes" and two diplomatic paths: one mostly of carrots (Fatah) - one solely of sticks (Hamas).
Israel facilitated the expansion of Hamas in the late 1980s as a rival to Arafat's secular PLO. But now in a stunning reversal, Fatah have been assisted rhetorically by Israel and the United States, although it is doubtful whether arms have been supplied. The policy of divide and rule has certainly worked, but to the extent that both sides loathe each other now. Never before in the Occupied Territories has there been such internecine conflict.
As for Israel, they now have the benefit of a clear defined enemy in Gaza. But Israel controls Gaza's borders and will need to negotiate with Hamas or its proxy to prevent a humanitarian crisis. Negotiating with Hamas would be unprecedented, but the only alternative might be to disconnect totally. Hamas have certainly strengthened militarily since Israel's withdrawal and indeed since the conflict last summer, so a ground invasion will be resisted.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1181813036987&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Let's for arguments sake stay optimistic about future possibilities here, since the pessimistic outcome is too bad to bear. But in brief, Hamas could use Gaza dominance as a platform for an assault against Israel, with an onslaught on nearby cities with newly acquired Katusha rockets plus a resumption of suicide attacks. A fierce response from Israel would be inevitable. Even more chronic desperation and hardship would follow for those Gazans that have no interest in Hamas militant rule. The impact on the region could be severe.
The optimistic view exists but it is based on a large assumption - that once the internal Gaza violence abates, Hamas does not launch such a reckless campaign against Israel. If Hamas' political leadership can re-establish their control - Ismael Haniya has been noticeably absent in the last few days - then clear divisions within Palestinian politics will appear. The moderate Fatah ruled West Bank against the uncompromising Hamas controlled Gaza. Part of Israel's and the international community's difficulty since Hamas' election victory in 2006 has lied in dealing with a Palestinian Authority that includes both rival factions. After this division, negotiation with an empowered Fatah has greater scope. Despite Mahmoud Abbas dire current position, he would be dominant in the West Bank, having lost Gaza. Israel and the West Bank will be two states working together, waiting for Gaza to catch up. There will be two "peace processes" and two diplomatic paths: one mostly of carrots (Fatah) - one solely of sticks (Hamas).
Israel facilitated the expansion of Hamas in the late 1980s as a rival to Arafat's secular PLO. But now in a stunning reversal, Fatah have been assisted rhetorically by Israel and the United States, although it is doubtful whether arms have been supplied. The policy of divide and rule has certainly worked, but to the extent that both sides loathe each other now. Never before in the Occupied Territories has there been such internecine conflict.
As for Israel, they now have the benefit of a clear defined enemy in Gaza. But Israel controls Gaza's borders and will need to negotiate with Hamas or its proxy to prevent a humanitarian crisis. Negotiating with Hamas would be unprecedented, but the only alternative might be to disconnect totally. Hamas have certainly strengthened militarily since Israel's withdrawal and indeed since the conflict last summer, so a ground invasion will be resisted.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1181813036987&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
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