Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Iran - the latest

It is really hard to get exact information about the situation in Iran. The Guardian has a running newsblog that picks up a lot http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/jun/17/iran-uprising

The Huffington Post is also providing a running blog. They have some excellent footage of today's protests: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

Despite the ban on reporting by foreign journalists, the unstoppable Robert Fisk is defying the regime and reporting on the situation: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm

Monday, June 15, 2009

The Green Tide

Iran's most anticipated election in recent years has ended in acrimony, the opposition have claimed fraud, and now protests have escalated on the streets. How this will progress is unclear though. Ayatollah Khamenei has given ground and said that there will be an inquiry into alleged vote rigging. This might not make much difference to the overall outcome. Firstly as it will probably not turn over the result, Khamenei has already congratulated Ahmadinejad on a victory. Secondly Ahmadinejad has a large following and they wouldn't accept a different result either. It is fairly clear from reports that fraud has occurred to some extent and it has been reported that Mousavi was told of victory, but then that this victory was denied.

The reaction of the current government to this "victory" has been to block websites, telecommunications and email. But with such a media savvy youth leading the protests, the possibility of comprehensive censorship seems unlikely. There won't be a repeat of Burma, where the junta shut the country off. But with a population of 40 million, people power is proving overwhelming. Iranians are extremely politically aware with the advent of the internet. The Islamic regime's efforts to offer freedoms to the people but then deny them their desired result, has proved a disastrous strategy. The genie is out of the bottle.

The depth of protests and opposition to the election's outcome means that there either might be a recount or the election is run again. But Ahmadinejad and the hardliners will fight this. After all the election was predicted to be close and the current president has strong rural support. The ominous warning before the election, that a green revolution would not be tolerated, shows the regime's culpability. Fearing this, they promptly rushed out results giving Ahmadinejad victory.

The ongoing nuclear negotiations and the other regional issues mean the outcome of these protests couldn't come at a more critical point. America has to keep quiet on these events, Iran has long seen the United States as the meddler in their domestic affairs. Which ever way the election goes, America will still have negotiate with Khamenei, unless there is a full blown revolution.
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=logo#/pages/Mir-Hossein-Mousavi-/45061919453?ref=nf

It has been reported that Khameini reneged on a deal to allow Mousavi the presidency, with the hardliners re-seizing the initiative. But it seems that these aloof clerics were totally ignorant of Iranian popular sentiment and their desires for freedom and democratic ideals. Most regimes or ideologies have a limited lifespan. Are we seeing after just over 30 years the end of this one? The revolutionary theocracy has become isolated from the real world and has now alienated its own longstanding supporters. This can't be blamed on foreign interference. This is now domestic pure and simple.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Lebanese elections

The March 14 alliance have been victorious in Lebanon's elections today, defeating the Hezbollah-FPM alliance 71 seats to 57. Western and Israeli diplomats are expressing their relief without sound triumphalist, but it would be extremely premature to see this result leading to a stable situation in Lebanon. There are two important questions to be pondered. What does this mean for Michel Aoun's Christian movement, who unexpectedly allied with the Shia Islamists. Will they return to an alliance with other Christian groups in the March 14 alliance. Secondly, how does Hezbollah respond. It has gracefully accepted defeat, but what happens to their military capability, built up since the 2006 war.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/19580/gauging_hezbollah_after_the_vote.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Ddaily_analysis

Thursday, June 4, 2009

A Historic Speech?

Today in Cairo, President Obama made his long anticipated speech to the Islamic world. The speech has been hailed as a new start for Muslim-West relations. Delivered in a typically lucid and intelligent manner, this represents an astonishing contrast to his predecessor and indeed those presidents before, who have simply seen the Islamic world in one dimensional terms. Obviously Obama's personal background made this speech all the more genuine and increases its chances of forming new relations. Passages relating to Palestinian suffering and firm rhetoric towards Israel, in particular settlements, will be well received. But unless definitive action occurs, this wave of goodwill is likely to peter out. The Middle East has witnessed many previous false dawns. However the speech can certainly be regarded as historic, for its intent, tone and content, but other events in the next few years may well overshadow its effectiveness.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Iranian Culture Wars

Beneath the hard edged geopolitical battle between Iran and the United States, a subtler and older war is still burning hard. All the media attention is focused on nuclear weapons and Islamist militancy, with matching solutions - sanctions or military action. But an equally important battle exists between censorship and imprisonment versus Internet freedom and human rights. And whilst America’s new commitment to soft power aims to turn this cultural battle in its favour, ultimately it will be a young generation of Iranians who may hold the key.

An ongoing exhibition at the British Museum depicts the life of Shah Abbas, the ruler of Persia from 1587 to 1629. He established contacts with Europe during his reign, to gain an advantage against the greater enemy – the Ottoman Empire. The ruler would even be mentioned in Shakespeare's Twelfth Night, under the name “the Sophy”. This was the last time in Iran-West relations where a mutual respect and parity was felt by both sides. As European colonial expansion settled in Asia, Iran's purpose was limited to its location as a valuable trade route. This economic relationship would become progressively less favorable to Iran as the decades passed.

Thirty years on from the Iranian revolution, a generation of Iranians exists with little memory of the 20th century Shah - Mohammed Pahlavi, the upheaval during the period of Khomeini’s return or the violence that followed - domestic repression and war with Iraq. The current leadership was born in the fires of those early days of the revolution - where repression mixed with anti-Americanism and Islamism. That revolution was born in economics and social unfairness, then morphed into a religious and totalitarian struggle, but it now might be shifting back to the same old grievances. Ahmadinejad’s one positive selling point is his perceived distance from the stain of political corruption, but he is part of a system that limits power to the few. Iran may be a democracy but the power lies close to Ayatollah Khameini and his inner circle.

The forthcoming elections place the incumbent against two reformers candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi. In this election, victory will lie not in what is said, but who controls how it is said.
Maybe another revolution is required in Iran - the Green or maybe Carpet Revolution. I think I need to work on these. But given Iran’s repressive internal security, a softer and more subtle revolution would be the only change possible. Internal change by stealth has greater chance of success - there is evidence that this is taking place.

Secular liberals united behind Khomeini in late 1978. The Shah’s authoritarian rule was opposed for its failure to respect the 1906 Iranian constitution. The middle class secular group the Liberation Movement of Iran, led by
Mehdi Bazargan, represented the non-religious and moderate force in the revolution. Bazargan was appointed prime minister in February 1979, resigning after the students’ seizure of the American embassy. He represented the moderates: willing to compromise with the Shah’s supporters; opposing Khomeini’s cultural revolution after he resigned.

The brutal consolidation of power by Khomeini’s supporters eliminated these liberal moderate voices and all others for that matter, especially those communist. With the Iranian die cast - the students seizure of the American embassy in Tehran being the starting point - a period of extreme animosity with the West followed. Efforts towards improving relations were thin, but the first attempts were cultural. Now a restoration of these cultural relations have ever chance to empower the present day secular liberals.

In 1998 Iran invited an American wrestling team to Tehran for a tournament. In the same year the two countries played in the World Cup - Iran winning two-one. The Iranian president Mohamed Khatami had proposed a “dialogue of civilizations” in a CNN interview in 1998. Comparing Iran’s revolution to the American one 200 years previous, he suggested some profound similarities: “With our revolution, we are experiencing a new phase of reconstruction of civilization. We feel that what we seek is what the founders of the American civilization were also pursuing four centuries ago. This is why we sense an intellectual affinity with the essence of the American civilization.” Khatami’s reformist tendencies hit plenty of obstacles within Iran’s political system.

Another football march was played in 2000 in the United States. The first visit for many of the Iranians was made as hospitable as possible, with special treatment like exclusion from border fingerprinting regulation.
America's efforts to improve diplomatic relations have not run totally smoothly. The American women's badminton team was
refused visas prior to a tournament in February – on a technicality not through an Iranian government block. Iran's team has been invited to the US in July. It might be a mere game of badminton, but given the antipathy that have poisoned US-Iran relations, this does matter.

Since January 2007, more than 75 Iranian athletes have taken part in wrestling, weightlifting, water polo and table tennis competitions in the United States, while 32 American athletes, including 20 wrestlers, have visited Iran, according to the Ettemaad newspaper. A total of 250 Iranian artists, athletes and doctors have made the return visit to the United States, according to the State Department.

Iran’s political isolation has not always been matched with cultural isolation. Iranians - especially the younger generations - are well tuned to global opinion via the internet. Prior to this year’s elections, the authorities banned access to Facebook, only for this to be lifted. Social networking sites are seen as important in mobilizing the youth vote in these elections, with reformist Mousavi most to gain. The on/off status of Facebook is seen as a dual policy by the Iranian authorities to appeal to the country's youth, but retain control.

Another cultural thrust could be from the good old Beeb. The launch of BBC Persia in January will reach 100 million Farsi speakers. The channel is sent to Iran by two satellite dishes but has been declared illegal by the culture minister.

The final wave of soft power came this week in advance of America's 4th July celebrations. American embassies around the world are to invite Iranian representatives for fireworks, hot dogs and hamburgers, to mark America's independence.

So this month's election is finely balanced, reformist Moussavi is leading in the polls, but expect the unexpected. Ahmadinejad will say anything and do anything to stay in power; hardline candidate Mohsen Rezaei has claimed he could stop Israel in “one strike”. Whatever the result, an undercurrent of cultural connections has in many ways made a rapprochement between Iran and the West inevitable.