Climate Change - The Military Response

The impact of climate change in Sub-Sahara Africa has already been witnessed in Darfur, where water shortages have fed tribal conflict since 2003. So far the developed world has failed to act in Sudan, but as the humanitarian crises multiply as a result of global warming, intervention will become inevitable. From now on military planners will have to factor in climate change when preparing for global conflicts, Jock Stirrup, chief of the defence staff said today at Chatham House. What sort of response would be suitable - when faced with unpredictable and unprecedented environmental - is difficult to gauge. Preparedness is the key, the UK's top military official said and the countries that are most vulnerable already have security problems, so military planners might have most of their research covered. But the changes that occur environmentally and their time span are extremely difficult to predict. Regions like Latin America and South East Asia, where local conflicts have simmered for years, could expand and take a severe turn for the worse.

The difficulty in reversing climate change means that the effects and subsequent conflicts are inevitable. Military planners first of all need to recognise the issue, Stirrup said. Dire economic and social conditions may not necessarily lead to terrorism or direct threats to the developed world, but a severe refugee crisis in affected regions would and could lead to new previously unconsidered problems. Despite the inevitable effects - education, disaster preparedness and awareness, solid local governance and economic infrastructures can limit the potential impact.