There have been many modern wars over natural resources. Oil and gas are obvious ones. Diamonds have fuelled West African conflicts for years. The coca plant is also a natural resource and that has created untold violence in Latin America. Disputes over timber have prolonged conflict in Indonesia. But up until now that most vital resource - water - has not provoked a serious conflict. Water has always been a key issue in the Arab-Israeli dispute, but has been totally overshadowed by nationalism and religion.
UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon said in a Washington Post article this weekend that not only has water played a role in Sudan's Darfur conflict, but this has been caused by climate change. 20 years of declining rainfall, resulting from global warming, has put unbearable strains on Sudanese livelihoods: "Once the rains stopped, farmers fenced their land for fear it would be ruined by the passing herds. For the first time in memory, there was no longer enough food and water for all. Fighting broke out." Similar ecological disruptions have caused conflict in Somalia and Ivory Coast.
Ethnic tribalism is obviously a key factor in the Darfur conflict, but chronic economic issues have always existed and have made political settlements only temporary. Ban ki-Moon said that sustained economic development is needed and that "New technologies can help, such as genetically modified grains that thrive in arid soils or new irrigation and water storage techniques." Resolving the Sudan crisis is a massive challenge for the international community and the Secretary General has made it a priority. But what is also important is that someone in his position has highlighted the clear linkage between the competition for resources, climate change and conflict. These are the threats that will shape the 21st century.
The impact of climate change will be predominantly seen in depletion of water sources. The Nile river may well be a focal point, as it runs through ten African states where the population lives below the poverty line. The population in the Nile basin is expected to double in the next 25 years. Egypt and Sudan have extensive rights over the river's water and have been reluctant to negotiate.
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