Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Iraq's fateful election

With the world's attention focused on Iran and Afghanistan, the progress of Iraq's fledgling democracy has dropped off the world agenda. But the March 7 poll could be as decisive as any other political event of the next few months. The decision to partially overturn a ban of over 500 candidates with alleged Ba'ath party links, has removed the possibility of the election being tainted before it actually happened. The committee that issued the banning of these Sunni candidates had links to Tehran, but the current leaders have shown themselves keen to resist this eastern influence. The outcome of the election may end up convoluted through endless coalition building and compromise, but the prize of victory is no less important.

The two alliances that look most likely to gain the most seats, cover the majority of the potential Shia vote, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) and the State of Law Alliance (SOLA). The INA won the 2005 election and includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sadrist movement. SOLA takes a more nationalistic approach and includes current prime minister Maliki. Other parties include Sunni alliances the Iraqi National Movement and Unity of Iraq Alliance. The Kurdish parties have formed an alliance to cover the Kurdish representation.

The introduction of democracy to Iraq after years of dictatorship and one party rule has been fraught. Elections have taken place – true, but the desired consequences have not always followed. The elections of 2005 confirmed the Sunni population's fear of marginalisation, after a limited participation. The elections have also appeared as something of a sideshow besides the raging violence that has overwhelmed Iraq. Successful elections have not led to political stability.

The elections of 2005 took place whilst insurgents waged war against the Americans and Iraq's embryonic state. The threats to bomb polling stations weighed on any Iraqi voter. The 2005 election resulted in a Shia-Kurdish victory, but the deterioration that followed wasn't just caused by Sunni rejection. The rejectionist forces opposed the entire new Iraq project, not just the electoral process. And vowed to wage war regardless. The December 15th 2005 elections did see some participation from Sunni insurgent groups keen to gain political power. These splits between nationalist insurgent and Islamist insurgent could be traced back to this difference of attitude.

The failure of elections to provide national unity and an end to sectarian differences also worsened inter communal violence. Unable to come to a political settlement, Iraqi politicians drew on their militia links to press home their influence. The militias integration into ministries of the state – acting as personal fiefdoms for Shia politicians – further alienated the Sunnis from the political set up. Elements within the Shi'te political fabric were more interested in controlling power than power sharing. Whilst clearly partisan Noura Al-Maliki has provided a counterweight to the power hungry Sadrist party. The previous elections created clear divisions in Iraq into sectarian lines. Tensions that did not previously exist were formed. Power and the expansion of power encouraged coercive and often violent practices by Iraqi politicians.

Despite recent improvements, the security threat in this election is still very real. The recent large attacks by Ba'athist-Al Qaida linked militants has been focused on the symbols of government power – ministries of health, justice, etc. But personal security for Iraqis is still poor, it just isn't reported extensively by the Western media. Iraq heads into these elections in a weak position.

The Americans will hope for a predictable outcome where established power bases keep their control. Iraqi domestic politics are now firmly considered Iraqi affairs. Greater participation from Sunnis, especially former insurgents like the Sons of Iraq, is to be hoped for. Kurdish confidence in the political system is also important to avoid a Iraqi-Kurd Arab split. The fault line that divides northern Iraqi Kurdistan and the Sunni heartland could be the new battle front. America will also hope that Iraqi politicians resist further Iranian influence. This is difficult to expect but will be crucial to wider US-Iranian relations that have worsen considerably of late.

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