The Real Rulers of Damascus

In the first high-level visit by a British official for seven years, David Milliband will meet Syrian president Bashar al-Assad tomorrow with the hope of bringing the pariah state back into the fold of the Middle East peace process. The foreign secretary will be hoping for an easier time than Tony Blair encountered in 2001, when the Syrian (and Arab) view of the region was stated in blunt terms. For many analysts Syria is the potential linchpin of stability and security: the patrons of Hamas and Hizbollah; the key to easing tensions over Iran's nuclear programme. But Syria is not simply Assad. Behind this young and confident leader is a complex hierarchy that few outside Damascus understand.

'If we do not talk with Assad, there will not be peace in the Middle East.' President Nicolas Sarkozy said recently. His importance to the country's fortunes is beyond doubt, but his control over internal security in Syria and Lebanon is unclear. What role did Assad have over the Hariri assassination, what control does he have over insurgent camps on the Iraq border, would he have the authority to break from Iran and suspend support for radical groups?

Bashar al-Assad assumed power in July 2000 after his father's death, having held no interest in politics to that point. Trained in London as an ophthalmologist, his rule has reflected this worldly and progressive background. But being thrust into the intensity of Middle Eastern politics at thirty-four years, a naivety has often been shown. Whilst this inexperience was shown in his reaction to the UN's Hariri investigation, there has been shrewdness in maintaining Syria's influence and combativeness against the West's pressure. Assad has been no pushover - whether against Blair in 2001 or after the barrage of warnings from America in mid 2003.

One of the West's prime accusations against Syria is its support for radical Islamist groups through its Iranian alliance. But this stands in stark contrast to Assad's own secular progressive background and also his wife's. Born and educated in Britain and having pursued a career in investment banking, Asma al-Assad has championed women's rights as Syria's first lady. The relationship between Iran and Syria can thus be explained as one of convenience rather than shared values. When interviewed by news channels Bashar Assad appears mild mannered, intelligent and fluent in English, but to many he is seen as one of the main obstacles to peace in the region and a supporter of violent radicalism. The two don't match up - an explanation may be that he represents a front and real power lies elsewhere.

Assad's sister Bushra is regarded as the intellectual force in the Syrian inner circle and has promoted her husband - Assef Shawkat - up the ranks of Damascus power, against the family's wishes. He now is head of military intelligence and is seen as the strongman of the regime. Shawkat had his assets frozen after being implicated in the Hariri assassination. He has also been accused of supporting Sunni Islamist terrorist groups in north Lebanon, whilst duplicitiously also conducting a public campaign to contain terrorism. Bushra - known as the "iron lady" - has the steel to drive her husband's ambitions but also to ensure her brother's position is secure. They are both considered to have held ambitions for Syria's top job. Finally the fourth member of this inner circle is the fourth Assad brother Maher, who has violent reputation and fell out with Shawkat in the late 1990s. Also implicated by the UN's Mehri report, he controls Syria's Republican Guard.

The latest rapprochement between Syria and the West is a positive development. But like Iran, domestic politics will play as much an influence on the course of negotiations as any shared interests between the Damascus leader and Western diplomats. Bashar al-Assad sent a congratulatory message to new president Barack Obama and Britain and Syria have agreed to closer intelligence co-operation. Shortly after the publication of the UN's report on the Hariri assassination, Bashar's days appeared numbered. He could have easily capitulated to Western demands and handed over his brother or brother-in-law, but he successfully weathered that storm. Faced with extreme external pressure, the Assad family has united around Bashar's leadership.

The rumour mill of the Middle East loves characters like the Assads, as their secrecy means that any host of interpretations of their intentions can be devised. Bushra a-Assad was this year rumoured to be seeking political asylum in France; Shawkat was reported to be under house arrest for his role in the assassination of Hezbollah number two Imad Mughnieh. The "suicide" of interior minister Ghazi Kanaan in 2005 was a classic addition to the Syrian rumour mongers armoury. Western politicians may have some greater insight than the public, but they may also be as confused as everyone else about where the true power in Damascus lies.