As America celebrates...

Whilst well over half of America celebrates the election of the first black president and the end of a disastrous Republican administration, two world events could prove prescient for the four years ahead. Six militants were killed in the first serious incident between Israel and Hamas since the ceasefire was agreed and in Mexico a plane crash has killed some of the government's top anti-cartel figures. These represent just two current flash points and who knows where other dangers lie in the next four years. Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Russian Caucasus and Pakistan are obvious locations. Barack Obama has other more urgent issues like the economy to deal with, but at some point foreign policy will rise to the top of his in-tray with a vengeance. For all his charisma and international appeal, Obama does not hold the silver bullet to world order and America will hold enemies regardless of who is in the White house.

The escalating narco-wars in Mexico represent a new potential threat on America's southern flank, whilst the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the oldest foreign policy issue around but still the most important. Northern Mexico has resembled Iraq of late with a wave of brutal inter-cartel murders often accompanied by gruesome torture. Corrupt police forces and politicians have left the Mexican government impotent and powerless to act. The cartels have even infiltrated the US embassy. American policy in Colombia under four previous Presidents made no difference to the narcotic flow despite the billions being pumped south, so success in Mexico is a tough task. Mexico has not been listed on many analyses of Obama's foreign policy priorities, but it could be a running sore for the next few years. The intensity of the violence could spark something more serious.

A resolution of the Palestine question would not end the turbulence in the Middle East, but it would neutralise some of the poison that has afflicted America's relationship with the region. Syria would offer less antagonism towards the US, and so may Iran. The Palestinians plight has never been central to Al-Qaeda's agenda, although it has been used all the same, so a settlement would not ease this front. But the resentment in the wider region that provides a pool of recruits would be relieved by any agreement. The need to prioritise the peace process is obvious, but achieving this is another matter. This has been beyond almost all previous Presidents, even Clinton failed and that was with two fairly moderate leaders and a positive mood in the wake of the Oslo accords. Now Hamas and Israel could launch full scale hostilities any day. With the possibility of an intransigent right wing government being elected in Israel early next year, the two sides could become even more entrenched.

Afghanistan and Iraq will most likely take precedence in the early part of the Obama presidency. If there is an advantage for Obama over previous Clinton and Bush administrations, it is that the seriousness of crises on his in-tray, forces quick and decisive formulation of foreign policy strategy. Clinton spent his first year in foreign policy anonymity, Bush only showed an interest once he had to - after September 11. The Obama doctrine has been clearly set out over the course of the campaign, but events and new conflicts can alter or ruin any pre-planned ideas very easily. Both his predecessors doctrines were widely discredited by the end of their presidencies.

Many foreign policy experts believe the Obama presidency will represent continuity. But the relationship between America and its allies will certainly see improvements. The total break down of relations between Europe and the Bush administration that began with the build up to the Iraq war has remained for the last five years. The rapturous reception Obama received on his late summer tour of Europe is pretty much mirrored by European politicians. The EU was humiliated by Russia in its conflict with Georgia, so it is crying out for new encouragement on the world stage. The role of the EU had been undermined in international issues - like the Iran nuclear issue. Carrot and stick diplomacy usually meant the EU provided weak carrots; the American administration wildly brandished the stick. A more multilateral approach is surely more likely now.

With the middle name of Hussein, you would think that Barack Obama will be able to reach out to moderates across the Middle East. This will happen and America's soft power will be restored, but the region has become riven with cynicism after the last eight years. Radical groups like Al-Qaida are a different matter. Engaged in a long war, the individual characteristics of presidents is not that relevant. Obama has placed Afghanistan as a priority as well as stabilising Pakistan. General Petraeus is looking to divide nationalist insurgents from jihadists in Afghanistan as was successful in Iraq. The approach to Iran will require real patience and tact -Obama traits - but it might be a Syria first strategy.

So Obama has four years to clear up the mess left by the Bush administration. No recent president has had such a daunting foreign policy agenda to deal with. Clinton had Somalia but this hadn't escalated; Bush snr had the Cold war but perestroika was in full flow by 1988. Obama will hope that Bush leaves no more unwanted legacies in the transition period. A possibility but unlikely given today's gracious congratulations. But then as Mexico's upward violent spiral shows, other fronts and crises are able to arise at any moment.