Bhutto suffers the inevitable

Having survived an assassination attempt on her first day and facing physical and political threats from all sides, Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan has ended in tragedy and sadly an inevitable assassination. With such a pressing Islamist threat, the Zia old guard still flexing their influence, and great uncertainty over how much control Musharraf actually has, this conclusion to Bhutto's career and undoubtedly the start of a new violent chapter for Pakistan is not surprising. Bhutto was without doubt a corrupt and feudal leader who had been unable to state a clear vision for the future since her return, but she was probably the second lesser of the four evils.

Two conclusions are clear from this assassination in Rawalpindi. Musharraf has no control over internal security and his state of emergency tactic of arresting moderates has clearly backfired. Second the Islamists are clearly in the ascendancy, they have penetrated internal state security apparatus with the capability to attack any politician regardless of their security detail. There is also the more alarming prospect of a return to the Zia-Islamist alliance of the 1980s. Zia ordered the execution of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977. Rawalpindi, a garrison town, might be considered one of the more secure Pakistani cities but it's military and ISI presence may not be a coincidence. Rawalpindi has also witnessed several bomb attacks over the last few years, including an assassination attempt on Musharraf in December 2003 and recent suicide attacks against the military.

Where does this leave Pakistan? Firstly Musharraf's response will be closely monitored, especially those who accuse him of collusion in this attack. Then the elections are due to occur early next year, can any candidate feel safe when campaigning, will Islamists escalate their campaign emboldened by this success, will elections actually take place? Musharraf has evaporating support in Washington, Sharif has failed to convince, meanwhile America's ultimate concern - Al Qaeda and neo-Taliban forces along the Afghanistan border - can only feel stronger after this assassination. Bhutto was unequivocal in her support for a US onslaught in the tribal areas if elected. The Islamist violence that erupted after the storming of the Red Mosque has continued with relentless ferocity and Pakistan is now close to if not over the edge.