Monday, July 30, 2007

Relations Renewed?

Predictions of Gordon Brown opening up a cross Atlantic divide or making an immediate Iraq withdrawal, as a gesture to Labour backbenchers, now seem way off the mark after today's first summit with George Bush. A public spat was always unlikely for such a cautious and calculated politician. Rather a more subtle schism has evolved. Brown is the consummate professional and today's performance was business-like, free of his predecessor's showbiz and machismo, and looking towards sorting out serious world issues first and foremost.

Behind the scenes, life goes on. Whether financial, legal, cultural or diplomatic, the ties will not feel even a ripple from Brown's political tide. Britain and the United States will remain bound in the Anglo-America sphere long after the two current leaders have moved on. The focus on personality - whether Colgate or communion - over the last six years clouded what the Special Relationship really is about. Brown - true Atlanticist and devotee of the free market - represents something closer to the core of the relationship. His passion for liberal democracy, open markets, globalisation and humanitarian intervention is probably stronger than Blair's ever was. It was these values that united the Atlantic in the immediate post-war period.

Both current leaders are moving in opposite directions. Brown's successful opening month in office, sees him ahead again in the polls with complete control over his party. Bush's popularity has plummeted, he is lacking any political direction and is isolated with few allies. Brown has been able to play this meeting from a position of strength, maintain cordiality and act firstly in British interests, for the crowd second.

The "special relationship" has always been an obsession of the British media. America has many "special relationships" as well as Britain. Global issues - climate change, international terrorism, Third world poverty - are now reaching critical points. Ensuring that solutions are forged through US-UK leadership seems to be Brown's primary objective, before heading off to the next diplomatic destination. Always the one-man political juggernaut, establishing links with his soulmates amongst the Democrats and tweaking yet more advantage over the Tories seems also to be a Brown prerogative.

But there are several issues that blighted relations in Blair's days and unfortunately it is too early to expect resolution on these, in public at least. Guantanamo, rendition, extradition treaties and Iraq have the potential to re-emerge as divisive and unpopular sticking points. Brown might have made smart political moves, keeping relations civil whilst appeasing both the Murdoch lobby and his own backbenchers, but within his first year in office, he will face the same difficult decisions and cross-Atlantic dilemmas, that did so much harm to his predecessor.

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