Crisis Management Lessons Part 1 and 2

Gordon Brown has been in politics long enough to never slip into complacency and having waited ten years to become prime minister, he is probably glad it hasn't been a dull start. Nearly one week in and two crises are upon his newly formed government. Dominating the headlines is the dual terror plot in London and Glasgow. The second crisis, still floating in and out of the headlines, are the floods which hit large parts of northern England last week and remain in many unfortunate homes across Yorkshire. Terror and the environment are on their way to being the two defining issues of Brown's premiership.

Just as airports, national landmarks and sports events are surrounded by armed police and security personnel, the military and emergency services are piling up the sandbags in preparation for the next deluge. Both crises are a real test for the economy and government responsiveness. The floods will eventual subside and the sun might come out in late July, likewise arrests will be made (8 so far) and the British flippancy will return. But what lessons will the Brown government take? Terror and climate change share unpredictable traits, so there are no clear solutions.

Brown's phlegmatic manner and his sturdy - head dinner lady - Home Secretary Jacqui Smith have provided a calm response to the terror attacks. The tactics are clearly inspired by the Iraqi insurgency, one of the suspects qualified as a doctor in Baghdad. The British have created enemies amongst Sunnis and Shia alike, plus there is the unknown Iranian factor. Whereas 7/7 was the product of domestic alienation, this plot has a "blowback" feel, as terrorists trained in bombing tactics in a distant warzone bring their operations back with a vengeance.

Despite the visceral effect of the terrorist attacks, the floods have claimed more lives and will present the longer term threat. The layman assumption was that global warming would, as its name suggests, create droughts and unbearable heat waves, but all round extreme weather is the most likely outcome. Unprecendented rain fall, violent hail storms and widespread flooding poses a new and no less worrying concern. Rather than another annual occurence of heavy rain, this has rightly been classified as a disaster. A budget of £800m has been agreed by the Department of Environment under new secretary Hillary Benn. So far, last week's floods had caused damage to 27,000 homes and 5,000 businesses, with an estimated clean-up cost of £1 billion. Now Britain is certainly not on the frontline of climate change or in a high-risk zone, but if seven people can die in a week's deluge in Britain, then imagine the impact in parts of the world that lack Western standards of infrastructure or emergency response services. Disaster planners and politician are going to need to consider all the possible effects of climate change.