Saturday, November 7, 2009

The fourth 9/11 - another revolution?

Those three digits have laid down some seminal dates in modern history: September 11th 1973, the Pinochet coup in Chile; 9th November 1989, the opening of the Berlin Wall; 11th September 2001, the Al-Qaida attacks on the Twin Towers and Pentagon. Who would discount another epoch making moment this Monday? The break between East and West Berlin was the iconic moment of 1989, even though Poland had elected the non-Communist Solidarity in June, the political breakthrough against communism. The chain of events that followed led to a redefining of international relations: the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of the EU and the spread of globalisation leading to India and China's ascendancy. But what now? The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have placed the world in its most precarious position since 1989, even though regional conflicts in Latin America and Africa have alleviated slightly. The collapse of the Soviet Union was the most significant consequence of 1989, leading to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the withdrawal of American interest in South Asia. The 1991 Gulf war and the rise of the Taliban in the early 1990s both led to 9/11 in 2001 and the wars that followed.

If we had to plot ahead and look for this next seismic moment, where and what would it be? The collapse of American forces in Afghanistan, airstrikes on Iran by Israel, or an implosion in Pakistan? The twentieth anniversary will provide commentators and contemporary historians ample space to consider how the world has progressed since, but history tells us that another defining moment could be just around the corner. We will then - twenty years after - be faced with a whole new set of consequences to deal with.

Critics of Western foreign policy highlight the wasted opportunity that followed 1989: the "peace dividend" dissipated as regional conflicts continued and authoritarian regimes retained their grip. Fukuyama's End of History predicting the dominance of Western liberal democracy was blocked by autocratic rule in the Middle East and Russia's return to traditional authoritarianism, after initial steps towards democracy. Whilst American policy makers espoused this new era in the early 1990s as ripe for the expansion of democracy, the reality never quite matched the rhetoric. True Latin America democratized as did South East Asia, but Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - key allies in the Middle East - stagnated in expanding popular representation. The rise of militant Islam was driven by a perceived apostasy (and lack of popular accountability) in these repressive allies. The 9/11 attacks were part of Bin Laden's strategy to polarize the Arab street and spark revolution against this authoritarian rule. A 1989 style of revolution in the Middle East would have been Osama's dream outcome. But given the way democracy has been curtailed in the region in the last decade, it may not be for a while

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