Endless cycles...

The world's most intractable conflict visits London this week as journalists from both sides put their arguments to the capital's lecture circuit. Palestinian Zaki Chehab, political editor of newspaper Al-Hayat, spoke of his close contacts with the Hamas leadership, as described in his acclaimed Inside Hamas. And editor of the Jerusalem Post David Horovitz presented the view from other side of the barbed wire fence. The backdrop is the desperate and dramatic events in Gaza this week, where a blockade has brought further misery but has been relieved across the Egyptian border as militants have destroyed parts of the fence.

The conclusion from both London events is that neither side is right or wrong - the solution will lie with those willing to compromise and probably through moderate politically secure leaders. Unfortunately neither have such direction. Despite a PR coup for Hamas this week, they are still considered too extreme for anyone away from the Arab street. Abbas is constantly undermined by Hamas and is powerless in Gaza and increasingly across the West Bank. Olmert is under renewed pressure from his conduct of last year's Lebanon war via the Winograd report. But the Israeli political minefield means that his departure would have no guarantees of enhanced political leadership.


Chehab describes Hamas leaders as friends and moderates, describing his people as oppressed, dispossessed but prepared to suffer whatever it takes to achieve the dream of statehood. Whilst his journalistic credentials are admirable, he is let down by an inability to criticise his own leaders, failure to understand the ordinary Israeli's perspective, and a naivety towards the role of Iran. A sentiment no different to that on the ground. Horovitz represents mainstream Israeli society. This narrative states that the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza has been squandered by Hamas; all Israel wants is a partner for peace; unlike the Palestinians there are no illusions towards the role of Iran. Leaving aside the permanent restrictions on travel, economic sanctions, checkpoints and assassinations, Israel - says Horovitz - want nothing to do with Gaza. If the Qassam rockets were to cease, the blockade would end and negotiation could follow.

Unfortunately - as Chehab seems to confer - resistance is regarded as the legitimate right in whatever form that might be, and Hamas are simply responding to Israeli restrictions and pressure, rather than attacking Israel unprovoked. The break over the Egyptian border has now undermined Israel's siege tactics and given no reason for Hamas to discontinue Qassam attacks. Horovitz believes Israel does not know what it is doing. Its tactics haven't succeeded, so what next? The full scale invasion of Gaza has been hinted for months, but negotiation looks more likely than total war. Former members of the Israeli military establishment have called for talks with Hamas. But this is a long way off, hatred and distrust are currently too great. Whatever the path to peace is, Hamas - despite the efforts of Bush, Abbas and Olmert to sideline - is too strong and an unavoidable player in the crisis. Horovitz is obviously sceptical - Hamas' religious imperative means that negotiation and concession are against their nature. But hardline religious parties are also influential in Israel and concessions in Judea and Samaria are equally difficult to extract.

Fuelling the feudalism...

Political assassinations, government corruption, state of emergency rule and an ongoing guerrilla war have brought Pakistan to its knees. Under such pressure, life still goes on though and Pakistan's economy - having shown steady growth over the last decade - has yet to be infected by the widespread political turmoil. But a sudden downturn in Pakistan's economy could be the tipping point. The diversity of Pakistan's economy fuels this political discord - the military retain vast industrial assets reinforcing their stranglehold on the state; whilst poverty and the collapse of state education fills madrasas and bloats radical jihadist movements. Recent power shortages and creeping inflation are signs of an impending economic collapse. The economy is moving up the long list of issues for candidates to discuss at the much delayed election. As India booms next door, the middle classes become further disillusioned - the group that politicians ultimately appeal to in elections.


The feudal system - that empowers landowners in a close knit clan society - has been Pakistan's backbone since its inception. Agrarian holdings provide economic power for aristocrats, from which - through corruption - political and military power is derived. And now this tradition has spread to the military establishment. The seminal text by Dr Ayesha Siddiqa on this hidden industrial empire estimates that the military holds £10bn of assets, 12m acres of public land and a third of heavy manufacturing output. Whilst this infrastructure accumulates untold wealth for a cadre of generals - a national network of bakeries, banks, insurance companies and universities funded by the army benefits Pakistani society. This omnipresent role has been accepted as part of Pakistan since partition and Pakistanis clearly benefit from the stability provided by such a behemoth. But since 2001, American aid has gone directly to reinforcing the military's dominance, undermining moves towards democratic economic transparency and perpetuating a culture of corruption and feudalism.

The black economy also plays a vital role in arming and supporting violent Islamist groups' war against the state. The hawala money transfer system has enabled an influx of funds from the Gulf and Europe. Despite efforts by Pakistan and American treasury intelligence to outlaw such transfers, Pakistan's porous financial system and foreign donations disguised as charitable gifts make prevention impossible. So this source of funds - with additional finances from the opium trade - leaves militant groups relatively unaffected by economic downturns. Recruitment to militant groups via madrasas also benefits from poverty, as through their dual position as welfare centres, religious schools provide shelter to the needy. Further poverty will maintain this flow of militant recruits, but the situation is already bad.