Endless cycles...

The world's most intractable conflict visits London this week as journalists from both sides put their arguments to the capital's lecture circuit. Palestinian Zaki Chehab, political editor of newspaper Al-Hayat, spoke of his close contacts with the Hamas leadership, as described in his acclaimed Inside Hamas. And editor of the Jerusalem Post David Horovitz presented the view from other side of the barbed wire fence. The backdrop is the desperate and dramatic events in Gaza this week, where a blockade has brought further misery but has been relieved across the Egyptian border as militants have destroyed parts of the fence.

The conclusion from both London events is that neither side is right or wrong - the solution will lie with those willing to compromise and probably through moderate politically secure leaders. Unfortunately neither have such direction. Despite a PR coup for Hamas this week, they are still considered too extreme for anyone away from the Arab street. Abbas is constantly undermined by Hamas and is powerless in Gaza and increasingly across the West Bank. Olmert is under renewed pressure from his conduct of last year's Lebanon war via the Winograd report. But the Israeli political minefield means that his departure would have no guarantees of enhanced political leadership.


Chehab describes Hamas leaders as friends and moderates, describing his people as oppressed, dispossessed but prepared to suffer whatever it takes to achieve the dream of statehood. Whilst his journalistic credentials are admirable, he is let down by an inability to criticise his own leaders, failure to understand the ordinary Israeli's perspective, and a naivety towards the role of Iran. A sentiment no different to that on the ground. Horovitz represents mainstream Israeli society. This narrative states that the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza has been squandered by Hamas; all Israel wants is a partner for peace; unlike the Palestinians there are no illusions towards the role of Iran. Leaving aside the permanent restrictions on travel, economic sanctions, checkpoints and assassinations, Israel - says Horovitz - want nothing to do with Gaza. If the Qassam rockets were to cease, the blockade would end and negotiation could follow.

Unfortunately - as Chehab seems to confer - resistance is regarded as the legitimate right in whatever form that might be, and Hamas are simply responding to Israeli restrictions and pressure, rather than attacking Israel unprovoked. The break over the Egyptian border has now undermined Israel's siege tactics and given no reason for Hamas to discontinue Qassam attacks. Horovitz believes Israel does not know what it is doing. Its tactics haven't succeeded, so what next? The full scale invasion of Gaza has been hinted for months, but negotiation looks more likely than total war. Former members of the Israeli military establishment have called for talks with Hamas. But this is a long way off, hatred and distrust are currently too great. Whatever the path to peace is, Hamas - despite the efforts of Bush, Abbas and Olmert to sideline - is too strong and an unavoidable player in the crisis. Horovitz is obviously sceptical - Hamas' religious imperative means that negotiation and concession are against their nature. But hardline religious parties are also influential in Israel and concessions in Judea and Samaria are equally difficult to extract.